Megapolitan: Arizona's Sun Corridor
Updated July 2009 by Grady Gammage, Jr.
Since we issued the Megapolitan: Arizona's Sun Corridor report in May 2008, the state of Arizona’s economy has changed dramatically. As I’ve made presentations about the report over the last year, I can see people in the audience rolling their eyes, skeptically arching eyebrows.
Today, somewhere near the bottom of our chronic “bust” cycle, it just doesn’t seem likely that we’ll ever again be in hyper growth mode. We have to remember that myopia is the dominant characteristic of places that live from boom to bust — at the top we believe it will go on forever, at the bottom we think recovery will take decades.
Sun Corridor growth projections were actually dialed back somewhat from the most optimistic at the time we wrote the report. If we did it today, they might be further delayed in time. But the story of Arizona’s growth is not over. I actually posed this question to a panel of experts a while back: “Given climate change and the dependence of the Arizona lifestyle on cheap oil, water and energy, is it possible that we’re done? That Arizona’s high growth period is over and we’ll begin to recede like other regions of the U.S. have?” The group — which was made up of mostly east coast policy wonk types — unanimously said “no,” we believe you’ll continue to grow.
Their reasons had to do both with the things that make Arizona attractive, including sunshine, cheap houses (again) and a relatively low carbon footprint; and with factors that will drive people out of the Midwest and other rust belt areas. The consensus was that the Sun Corridor will be reality, it’s just a matter of when.
