Morrison Memo: Voting as a barometer for civic engagement

Morrison Memo #4

While the information age and social media have created a multitude of new forums for civic engagement and political rambling, voter turnout remains a critical indicator of the health of our democracy. So just how representative is our political system?

At the national level, the 2008 presidential election was hailed as mobilizing youth and minority voters. According to the U.S. Census, voter turnout increased by 5 million and turnout among voters ages 18 to 24 increased from 47% in 2004 to 49% in 2008.

For minorities, voting rates for African Americans, Asians, and Hispanics each increased by approximately 4 percentage points from 2004 to 2008. Women (66%) continued to vote at a higher rate than men (62%), although this doesn’t reflect a statistically significant change from voting rates in 2004.

What about Arizona?

Arizona has seen an increase in presidential election turnout since 1980, but a decrease in turnout for gubernatorial elections over the same period. During the period 1980 to 2008, the average gap between Arizona and U.S. voter turnout was 6.2% for presidential elections and 2.5% for non-presidential elections.

Another trend is the fact that the percentage of Arizona’s voting age population that is eligible to vote has decreased substantially from 1980-2008. In 1980, 96% of Arizona’s voting age population was eligible to vote compared to only 85% of the voting age population in 2008. Nationally, the decrease has been less significant, from 97% in 1980 to 92% in 2008. For Arizona, this can be attributed to largely to an increase in non-citizen residents and partly to an increase in ineligible felons.

According to Pew Hispanic Research Center, Arizona’s Hispanic population is the sixth largest in the nation (nearly 1.8 million in 2008), but only 37% of Arizona Latinos are eligible to vote. This figure largely reflects the number of Hispanics who are non-citizens (both documented and undocumented). It also reflects the relative youthfulness of Arizona’s Hispanic population. Based on 2008 American Community Survey data, 26.2% of Hispanics in Arizona are under 18 years of age.

Among those Hispanics who are eligible to vote, turnout may increase if the educational attainment gap were closed. Twenty-eight percent of Latino eligible voters in Arizona have not completed high school and studies suggest that this educational disadvantage could make them less likely to turnout on Election Day.